Live odds and prediction markets on geopolitics — conflicts, ceasefires, diplomacy and world events on Polymarket.
Polymarket has 24 live Geopolitics markets right now (updated October 2026). As of October 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Geopolitics market is “NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?”, where No is the favorite at 98% implied odds on $1.29M of 24h volume.
Geopolitics markets price the odds of real-world outcomes — ceasefires and conflict milestones, sanctions and diplomatic deals, leadership transitions, and the results of summits and treaties. They give a continuously updated, money-weighted read on events that official forecasts update slowly; prices move as the news does.
A Polymarket market isn't a sportsbook line — it's a live market of shares. Each outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price isthe crowd's implied probability: a side at 60¢ is the market's 60% pick. There's no bookmaker setting the number and baking in a margin; the odds move in real time as traders buy and sell, so a poll swing, a debate or breaking news re-prices the market instantly. Back a side you think is mispriced, and winning shares settle at $1 while losing shares go to $0 — the odds and the payout are the same number.
Polynyx is the independent analytics layer on top: it pulls the same live geopolitics odds and 24h volume as the interactive grid, shows which wallets are trading each market, and ranks the sharpest geopolitics traders. You place bets on Polymarket itself; nothing here is financial advice.
24 markets, hottest by 24h volume first.
As of October 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Geopolitics market is “NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?”, where No is the favorite at 98% implied odds on $1.29M of 24h volume.
| # | Market | Current odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes2%+1 Open$1.29M 24h |
The wallets with the most realized profit inside Geopolitics markets — rebuilt from on-chain trades, bots filtered out. Follow their positioning before you bet.
| # | Trader | Geopolitics PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe-Biden | +$883K |
| 2 | Wickier | +$862K |
| 3 | flydartball |
The free tier shows the shapeof the edge — live odds, volume and the full leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies it: who's buying, how good they really are, and the model picks as they fire.
| Capability | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Live Geopolitics odds, 24h volume & hot markets | Included | Included |
| Full Geopolitics trader leaderboard (ranked by realized PnL) |
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
| 2 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Yes98%+1 Open$526K 24h |
| 3 | Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Gadi Eizenkot51%Benjamin Netanyahu28%+5 Open$351K 24h |
| 4 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes80%+1 Open$347K 24h |
| 5 | NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? Yes7%+1 Open$315K 24h |
| 6 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes19%+1 Open$251K 24h |
| 7 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes88%+1 Open$208K 24h |
| 8 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes3%+1 Open$116K 24h |
| 9 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Yes98%+1 Open$111K 24h |
| 10 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes2%+1 Open$107K 24h |
| 11 | NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026? Yes10%+1 Open$105K 24h |
| 12 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes75%+1 Open$88.0K 24h |
| 13 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes19%+1 Open$86.8K 24h |
| 14 | Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? Yes20%+1 Open$62.8K 24h |
| 15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes85%+1 Open$61.4K 24h |
| +$838K |
| 4 | Magamyman | +$785K |
| 5 | Votei14Voude22 | +$725K |
| Included |
| Included |
| Who's buying — smart-money names, ranks & P&L on Geopolitics markets | Premium only | Included |
| ROI & win rate on every Geopolitics trader | Premium only | Included |
| Live model picks & sharp-agreement signals, as they fire | Premium only | Included |
| Full trade history & all-time P&L per wallet | Last 30 days | All-time |
| Category breakdowns + best & worst markets per wallet | Premium only | Included |
| Track wallets as one portfolio | 1 wallet | Unlimited |