Live odds and prediction markets on the macro economy — inflation, jobs, GDP and recession on Polymarket.
Polymarket has 24 live Macro markets right now (updated October 2026). As of October 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Macro market is “Argentina Monthly Inflation - October”, where 1.6 to 1.8% is the favorite at 54% implied odds on $5.5K of 24h volume.
Macro markets price upcoming data and economic outcomes: CPI and inflation prints against a threshold, monthly jobs and unemployment numbers, GDP and growth, and longer-dated recession markets. Each is a live implied probability that re-rates as releases approach and land — a continuous, money-weighted nowcast.
A Polymarket market isn't a sportsbook line — it's a live market of shares. Each outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price isthe crowd's implied probability: a side at 60¢ is the market's 60% pick. There's no bookmaker setting the number and baking in a margin; the odds move in real time as traders buy and sell, so a jobs report, a CPI print or a Fed decision re-prices the market instantly. Back a side you think is mispriced, and winning shares settle at $1 while losing shares go to $0 — the odds and the payout are the same number.
Polynyx is the independent analytics layer on top: it pulls the same live macro odds and 24h volume as the interactive grid, shows which wallets are trading each market, and ranks the sharpest macro traders. You place bets on Polymarket itself; nothing here is financial advice.
24 markets, hottest by 24h volume first.
As of October 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Macro market is “Argentina Monthly Inflation - October”, where 1.6 to 1.8% is the favorite at 54% implied odds on $5.5K of 24h volume.
| # | Market | Current odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina Monthly Inflation - October 1.6 to 1.8%54%1.9 to 2.1%34%+6 Open |
The wallets with the most realized profit inside Macro markets — rebuilt from on-chain trades, bots filtered out. Follow their positioning before you bet.
| # | Trader | Macro PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | lijialijia2020 | +$110K |
| 2 | perfectnostalgia | +$90.9K |
| 3 | Alpha.Seeking |
The free tier shows the shapeof the edge — live odds, volume and the full leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies it: who's buying, how good they really are, and the model picks as they fire.
| Capability | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Live Macro odds, 24h volume & hot markets | Included | Included |
| Full Macro trader leaderboard (ranked by realized PnL) |
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
| 2 | Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026? 3.0-3.5%42%3.5%+25%+6 Open$3.1K 24h |
| 3 | Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes14%+1 Open$2.9K 24h |
| 4 | US recession by end of 2026? Yes9%+1 Open$2.8K 24h |
| 5 | 2026 World GDP Growth 3.1%59%3.3%3%+2 Open$2.0K 24h |
| 6 | October Inflation US - Annual 3.7%89%4.0%3%+3 Open$1.8K 24h |
| 7 | Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%? Yes39%+1 Open$962 24h |
| 8 | Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM) 0.2 to 0.3%38%0.0 to 0.1%33%+1 Open$961 24h |
| 9 | South Africa Annual Inflation 2026 4.1-4.4%3%2.6-2.9%1%+4 Open$941 24h |
| 10 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October? Yes91%+1 Open$727 24h |
| 11 | Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026? 1.0-1.2%50%0.7-0.9%30%+2 Open$710 24h |
| 12 | October Inflation US - Monthly 0.3%39%0.2%26%+2 Open$677 24h |
| 13 | UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)? 0.4–0.5%17%0.8–0.9%14%+1 Open$589 24h |
| 14 | Canada Annual Inflation 2026 3.5-3.9%22%2.0–2.4%9%+3 Open$464 24h |
| 15 | Core CPI MoM - October 2026 0.2%34%0.3%31%+2 Open$416 24h |
| +$31.3K |
| 4 | TruongMyLan | +$24.9K |
| 5 | FrozenParasite | +$23.5K |
| Included |
| Included |
| Who's buying — smart-money names, ranks & P&L on Macro markets | Premium only | Included |
| ROI & win rate on every Macro trader | Premium only | Included |
| Live model picks & sharp-agreement signals, as they fire | Premium only | Included |
| Full trade history & all-time P&L per wallet | Last 30 days | All-time |
| Category breakdowns + best & worst markets per wallet | Premium only | Included |
| Track wallets as one portfolio | 1 wallet | Unlimited |