Live odds and prediction markets on the Fed — FOMC decisions, the rate path and the dot plot on Polymarket.
Polymarket has 24 live Fed & Rates markets right now (updated October 2026). As of October 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Fed & Rates market is “Fed Decision in October?”, where No change is the favorite at 95% implied odds on $2.37M of 24h volume.
Fed & Rates markets price the odds around US monetary policy: the next FOMC decision (hike, hold or cut, and its size), the number of moves across a year, where the policy rate lands by a given meeting, and Fed-chair and leadership questions. Prices are live implied probabilities that move with CPI, jobs data and Fed commentary — a market-based read alongside tools like CME FedWatch.
A Polymarket market isn't a sportsbook line — it's a live market of shares. Each outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price isthe crowd's implied probability: a side at 60¢ is the market's 60% pick. There's no bookmaker setting the number and baking in a margin; the odds move in real time as traders buy and sell, so a jobs report, a CPI print or a Fed decision re-prices the market instantly. Back a side you think is mispriced, and winning shares settle at $1 while losing shares go to $0 — the odds and the payout are the same number.
Polynyx is the independent analytics layer on top: it pulls the same live fed & rates odds and 24h volume as the interactive grid, shows which wallets are trading each market, and ranks the sharpest fed & rates traders. You place bets on Polymarket itself; nothing here is financial advice.
24 markets, hottest by 24h volume first.
As of October 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Fed & Rates market is “Fed Decision in October?”, where No change is the favorite at 95% implied odds on $2.37M of 24h volume.
| # | Market | Current odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fed Decision in October? No change95%25 bps increase6%+1 Open |
The wallets with the most realized profit inside Fed & Rates markets — rebuilt from on-chain trades, bots filtered out. Follow their positioning before you bet.
| # | Trader | Fed & Rates PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TheReturnOfDarthMaul | +$1.68M |
| 2 | TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard | +$545K |
| 3 | CentralCasting |
The free tier shows the shapeof the edge — live odds, volume and the full leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies it: who's buying, how good they really are, and the model picks as they fire.
| Capability | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Live Fed & Rates odds, 24h volume & hot markets | Included | Included |
| Full Fed & Rates trader leaderboard (ranked by realized PnL) |
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
| 2 | Fed Decision in December? 25 bps increase74%No change21%+3 Open$64.2K 24h |
| 3 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes75%+1 Open$45.2K 24h |
| 4 | Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) Hike–Pause–Hike74%Hike–Pause–Pause21%+2 Open$29.7K 24h |
| 5 | How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? 0 (0 bps)96%1 (25 bps)1%+2 Open$21.4K 24h |
| 6 | How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? 2 (50 bps)71%1 (25 bps)23%+2 Open$8.2K 24h |
| 7 | Bank of Canada Decision in October? 25 bps increase81%No Change19% Open$7.5K 24h |
| 8 | Fed Decision in January? No change69%25 bps increase28%+2 Open$6.8K 24h |
| 9 | Central Bank of Colombia decision in October No change57%25 bps increase30%+3 Open$5.1K 24h |
| 10 | How low will Lake Powell drop? Above 3,510 ft86%3,500–3,510 ft8% Open$3.6K 24h |
| 11 | Central Bank of Colombia decision in December No change69%50+ bps increase13%+2 Open$2.5K 24h |
| 12 | How many dissent at the December Fed meeting? 045%130%+3 Open$2.4K 24h |
| 13 | How many dissent at the October Fed meeting? 230%026%+3 Open$2.2K 24h |
| 14 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? Yes7%+1 Open$2.0K 24h |
| 15 | Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) Pause-Hike-Pause59%Pause-Hike-Hike18%+3 Open$1.1K 24h |
| +$482K |
| 4 | ThePrinceThatWasPromised | +$391K |
| 5 | ratehikes | +$261K |
| Included |
| Included |
| Who's buying — smart-money names, ranks & P&L on Fed & Rates markets | Premium only | Included |
| ROI & win rate on every Fed & Rates trader | Premium only | Included |
| Live model picks & sharp-agreement signals, as they fire | Premium only | Included |
| Full trade history & all-time P&L per wallet | Last 30 days | All-time |
| Category breakdowns + best & worst markets per wallet | Premium only | Included |
| Track wallets as one portfolio | 1 wallet | Unlimited |