Fed Rate Prediction Markets on Polymarket — Trading FOMC Odds
How to trade Fed rate decisions on Polymarket — hike, hold and cut markets around FOMC meetings, how they price against expectations, and how to read the macro wallets.
Every FOMC meeting, Polymarket prices the Fed's decision as live shares — a hike, a hold, or a cut of a given size — between 0¢ and 100¢. For macro-minded traders it's a clean way to take a view on rates without touching rates futures. This guide covers how these markets are built and how to read them. Browse the live book on the Fed rates odds page.
Hike, hold, or cut
A rate-decision market is usually a multi-outcome set — “hold”, “cut 25bps”, “cut 50bps” — with the prices summing to ~100¢. A “hold” share at 72¢is the market's ~72% read that rates don't move at the meeting. Win and the share settles at $1.00. Longer- dated markets price the path: where the target range sits by a future meeting or year-end.
How these price against expectations
Fed markets move on data, not games — a hot CPI print, a jobs number, or a speech from a governor re-rates the odds immediately. They effectively track the same expectations as rates futures, but as a simple probability you can read at a glance and trade in small size. Because it's a live market, you can close before the decision rather than holding to the announcement.
The crowd is different again
Macro markets attract a smaller, more specialist crowd than sports or politics — traders who actually follow the data. That makes reading who is positioned especially valuable here, because a handful of proven macro wallets carry more signal than a wave of casual flow.
Find the sharp macro wallets
Filter the economics leaderboardfor wallets with a real track record on rate and macro markets, open one for its win rate and realized P&L, and watch live flow on the smart-money tracker. See the full economics hub and every live market on the markets page.
Premium and the data API
Browsing is free. Polynyx Premium(from $4.99/week) unlocks the names, ranks and P&L of every smart wallet on a Fed market, the model's live picks, and all-time win rates. Quants and builders can pull the same odds and smart-money data from the Polynyx API and MCP server.
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a broker or an advisor, and nothing here is financial advice. Market availability depends on your jurisdiction.
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