The story
On the night before the October 10, 2025 announcement, María Corina Machado's chances on Polymarket jumped from about 3.6% to more than 70%. A handful of new accounts were buying — among them 6741, reported to have been created for the bet, and dirtycup, flagged by Bloomberg.
When Machado was named laureate, the Norwegian Nobel Institute said it would investigate whether the decision had leaked. 6741's position — about 140,000 YES shares at an average near 36¢ — paid around $72K.
No public conclusion has been reached. The episode became a reference point for how fast information shows up in prediction-market prices, and for the questions that follows.
