The story
In October 2024 a cluster of accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie — kept buying Trump at prices the polls said were too high. Polymarket later told CNBC that all four were controlled by one French national, who described himself as a former banker and trader and asked to be known only as Théo.
His edge, as he explained it to the Wall Street Journal, was a private poll he commissioned using the "neighbor effect" — asking voters who their neighbours would vote for, to get around shy-voter bias. He said he had no political agenda; he simply thought the market had Trump too cheap.
It paid. Trump won the Electoral College and the popular vote, which the market had priced near 37%. Bloomberg first put his profit at about $48M; a later Chainalysis analysis reported by The Block counted $78.7M across nine accounts, and Bloomberg's follow-up put the total near $85M across eleven.
Theo4, the account on this page, made its biggest win on the popular-vote YES bought at around 37¢ — about $8.3M on one market. Fredi9999 carried the headline Trump-wins bet, which paid even more, near $9.7M. Theo4 and Fredi9999 still sit first and third on Polymarket's all-time profit leaderboard.
