The story
On June 15, 2026 Spain were around 92% to beat Cabo Verde at the World Cup. A brand-new account, fishalive, took the other side in size: NO on Spain winning at about 9¢, plus Cabo Verde on the −2.5 spread.
The match finished 0-0. Both positions paid, for a combined profit of about $9M — and a flood of questions about whether a days-old wallet staking millions on a 9% outcome was lucky or knew something.
No insider claim has been substantiated. What is on the record is the trade itself, which is why it's one of the most argued-about bets of the tournament.
