Live odds and prediction markets on Bitcoin — price milestones, monthly closes and the halving cycle on Polymarket.
Polymarket has 24 live Bitcoin markets right now (updated October 2026). As of October 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Bitcoin market is “Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?”, where No is the favorite at 61% implied odds on $158K of 24h volume.
Bitcoin is the most heavily traded crypto category on Polymarket. Markets price whether BTC closes above or below specific levels by a date — the next milestone, a monthly or year-end close, a new all-time high — plus halving-cycle and range markets. Each is a live implied probability that tracks spot price in real time.
A Polymarket market isn't a sportsbook line — it's a live market of shares. Each outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price isthe crowd's implied probability: a side at 60¢ is the market's 60% pick. There's no bookmaker setting the number and baking in a margin; the odds move in real time as traders buy and sell, so a sharp price move, an ETF headline or an on-chain event re-prices the market instantly. Back a side you think is mispriced, and winning shares settle at $1 while losing shares go to $0 — the odds and the payout are the same number.
Polynyx is the independent analytics layer on top: it pulls the same live bitcoin odds and 24h volume as the interactive grid, shows which wallets are trading each market, and ranks the sharpest bitcoin traders. You place bets on Polymarket itself; nothing here is financial advice.
24 markets, hottest by 24h volume first.
As of October 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Bitcoin market is “Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?”, where No is the favorite at 61% implied odds on $158K of 24h volume.
| # | Market | Current odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes40%+1 Open$158K 24h |
The wallets with the most realized profit inside Bitcoin markets — rebuilt from on-chain trades, bots filtered out. Follow their positioning before you bet.
| # | Trader | Bitcoin PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | gasd4 | +$568K |
| 2 | 0x3585… | +$485K |
| 3 | IamFKINGbankrupt |
The free tier shows the shapeof the edge — live odds, volume and the full leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies it: who's buying, how good they really are, and the model picks as they fire.
| Capability | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Live Bitcoin odds, 24h volume & hot markets | Included | Included |
| Full Bitcoin trader leaderboard (ranked by realized PnL) |
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
| 2 | Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25? Yes5%+1 Open$148K 24h |
| 3 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25? Up96%Down5% Open$107K 24h |
| 4 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? Yes4%+1 Open$91.9K 24h |
| 5 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? Yes9%+1 Open$88.7K 24h |
| 6 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October? Yes4%+1 Open$85.6K 24h |
| 7 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? Yes44%+1 Open$60.3K 24h |
| 8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 25? Yes0%+1 Open$55.0K 24h |
| 9 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25? Yes89%+1 Open$51.9K 24h |
| 10 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? Yes59%+1 Open$51.3K 24h |
| 11 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October? Yes18%+1 Open$50.9K 24h |
| 12 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? Yes25%+1 Open$50.5K 24h |
| 13 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? Yes1%+1 Open$48.1K 24h |
| 14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October? Yes2%+1 Open$46.5K 24h |
| 15 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25? Yes13%+1 Open$46.1K 24h |
| +$428K |
| 4 | hgfhff | +$398K |
| 5 | hai15617 | +$346K |
| Included |
| Included |
| Who's buying — smart-money names, ranks & P&L on Bitcoin markets | Premium only | Included |
| ROI & win rate on every Bitcoin trader | Premium only | Included |
| Live model picks & sharp-agreement signals, as they fire | Premium only | Included |
| Full trade history & all-time P&L per wallet | Last 30 days | All-time |
| Category breakdowns + best & worst markets per wallet | Premium only | Included |
| Track wallets as one portfolio | 1 wallet | Unlimited |