$35.6K of lifetime Polymarket volume and +$2.6K of realized profit put Probably-Likely at roughly 974 POLY (≈ $97 at a $1B valuation) — outside the top 1,664 estimated wallets. Every assumption is adjustable on the result below.
Is there a Polymarket airdrop? As of October 31, 2026: planned, not live. Polymarket has confirmed a POLY token and an airdrop are coming after its US relaunch, but has announced no date, snapshot or eligibility rules, and there is nothing to claim yet.
Disclaimer: Unconfirmed and approximate: an estimate based on public Polymarket trading stats (lifetime volume and realized P&L) under adjustable assumptions. Not official Polymarket data, not a promise of any allocation, and not financial advice.
Best traders, live smart-money tape, every wallet's full P&L and model picks as they fire.
Paste a 0x address or search 200k+ Polymarket traders by username — same search as the leaderboard.
Lifetime volume earns the base allocation, realized profit earns a skill bonus, a per-wallet cap blunts wash volume — the dYdX / ARB / HL playbook.
Drag FDV, supply, pool share and rates. The figure recomputes live and your scenario is saved on your device.
Confirmed: Polymarket CMO Matthew Modabber has publicly stated there will be a POLY token and an airdrop, timed after the US relaunch. Community reports point to roughly 5–10% of supply for participants.
Not announced:the TGE date, official eligibility criteria, snapshot dates and allocation formula. Anyone claiming exact numbers is guessing — including us. That's why every assumption in the $POLY Checker is a slider you control.
What history suggests: comparable airdrops (dYdX, Arbitrum, Hyperliquid) rewarded sustained volume with a profit/skill component and per-wallet caps, plus sybil filtering. Polymarket has confirmed it runs sybil detection, so wash volume and multi-account farming are likely to be discounted.
While you wait: see how your trading stacks up on the Polymarket leaderboard or follow what top wallets are buying on the smart money tracker.
Read next: how to qualify for the $POLY airdrop, when the airdrop is expected, and points, rewards & farming, how eligibility and allocation work, and the airdrop leaderboard.
Last reviewed October 31, 2026 · official sources only
About 974 POLY (≈ $97 at the default $1B valuation) under the $POLY Checker's model: 2 POLY per $100 of lifetime volume plus 10 POLY per $100 of realized profit, capped per wallet. Unconfirmed and approximate: Polymarket has published no official formula, and this is an estimate from public trading stats, not official data.
Probably-Likely has $35.6K of lifetime Polymarket volume and +$2.6K of realized P&L, so it has the kind of history past exchange airdrops rewarded. Official eligibility rules do not exist yet; Polymarket has confirmed a token and airdrop are planned but has not announced criteria or a snapshot.
Outside the top 1,664 wallets Polynyx ranks by estimated allocation. Volume and realized profit are what move it.
A token and airdrop are planned but not live: Polymarket CMO Matthew Modabber has publicly confirmed there will be a POLY token and an airdrop following the US relaunch, with community reports suggesting 5–10% of supply for participants. No official eligibility rules or allocations are published yet — the $POLY Checker is a transparent estimate model, not official data.
Paste any Polymarket wallet address (or search a username) into the $POLY Checker above. It pulls the wallet's public lifetime trading volume and realized PnL and scores a potential allocation the way historical exchange airdrops did — instantly, free, no signup.
Unconfirmed & approximate — estimated from public trading stats, not official Polymarket data. The model follows historical DEX/perps airdrops (dYdX, Arbitrum, Hyperliquid): 2 POLY per $100 of lifetime traded volume, plus a skill bonus of 10 POLY per $100 of realized profit, capped per wallet at 0.05% of an assumed 15% community pool. Every assumption is adjustable on the result card.
The default scenario assumes a 10B total supply and a $1B fully-diluted valuation — about $0.10 per POLY. Drag the FDV and supply sliders to model your own scenario.
Any Polymarket wallet — paste a 0x address or search a trader by their Polymarket username. The numbers come from public Polymarket data (lifetime volume and realized PnL).
No date is announced. Polymarket leadership has said the token comes after the US relaunch is fully stable, and that they're being deliberate about timing — most community expectations point to a TGE once the US rollout matures. Until then, snapshots of trading activity are the thing to optimize.
Based on confirmed statements and how comparable airdrops worked: consistent trading volume over time (weighted, with sybil detection to catch wash trading and multi-accounting), realized profit, liquidity-provider rewards, account age and regular activity. One large wallet trading steadily beats many small ones — Polymarket has said it uses sybil detection.
The Polynyx airdrop leaderboard ranks over 200,000 Polymarket wallets by estimated allocation under the same model — the top 100 are listed with their volume, realized profit and estimated POLY, and every ranked wallet has its own estimate page.
No. Nothing has launched, so there is nothing to claim: any site, post or message offering a Polymarket airdrop claim today is a scam. The $POLY Checker only reads public trading data; it never asks you to connect a wallet or sign anything.
Trade real volume consistently rather than in one burst, keep positive realized PnL where you can, avoid wash-trading patterns (sybil detection will likely zero those out), and track your stats here — the checker shows exactly which inputs drive your estimate, so you can watch your volume and PnL grow over time.
Unconfirmed and approximate: an estimate based on public Polymarket trading stats (lifetime volume and realized P&L) under adjustable assumptions. Not official Polymarket data, not a promise of any allocation, and not financial advice.